Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 180.137092 212.219690 249.976539 298.123639 358.509773 432.576499 5.316061e+02
2025-10-26 140.801376 179.623624 230.281491 302.728047 406.238579 552.986922 7.848313e+02
2025-11-02 117.137488 157.889290 215.080617 304.050361 444.525963 668.338767 1.076301e+03
2025-11-09 99.390489 139.530686 199.026231 297.798896 466.720366 763.318323 1.376218e+03
2025-11-16 86.366551 125.277564 185.571339 291.238747 484.742450 855.052339 1.714823e+03
2025-11-23 76.203413 113.577020 173.685927 284.020561 498.539764 942.250782 2.092066e+03
2025-11-30 72.849945 112.007882 177.759178 305.226152 571.666084 1178.963441 2.996525e+03
2025-12-07 67.281935 105.923165 172.989729 308.685437 609.283404 1351.849299 3.871871e+03
2025-12-14 63.110955 101.625089 170.633509 316.220184 657.997141 1575.242086 5.141654e+03
2025-12-21 58.480988 95.925641 164.802352 315.285959 686.500086 1757.995850 6.481590e+03
2025-12-28 57.079385 95.856148 169.627685 338.329448 782.868026 2201.132024 9.708744e+03
2026-01-04 55.142927 94.531642 171.729593 355.645186 870.556189 2677.681002 1.420781e+04
2026-01-11 52.803075 92.308210 171.968947 369.454034 956.673731 3230.124877 2.106910e+04
2026-01-18 50.181785 89.249000 170.038941 377.619558 1029.971020 3802.883720 3.071904e+04
2026-01-25 47.374299 85.507618 166.099766 379.744256 1085.049029 4352.094419 4.353573e+04
2026-02-01 44.149752 80.588132 158.891565 371.551099 1101.345013 4725.404482 5.697271e+04
2026-02-08 41.231787 76.037808 151.984106 362.908074 1113.532560 5098.902133 7.452130e+04
2026-02-15 38.556871 71.761654 145.216437 353.403767 1119.449673 5450.980281 9.673557e+04
2026-02-22 38.282630 72.593968 150.656472 381.380131 1292.215887 7201.765833 2.057364e+05
2026-03-01 36.721103 70.462400 148.615222 385.957728 1367.501535 8369.199584 3.493345e+05
2026-03-08 35.542675 69.073670 148.254802 395.941238 1474.524192 10056.874188 6.949328e+05
2026-03-15 33.925422 66.553262 144.715584 394.702431 1527.019728 11349.722708 1.247314e+06
2026-03-22 33.789585 67.412130 150.067020 425.336981 1766.957545 15538.190186 5.388013e+06